Figure 9. Breakdown of daily cases in NCR by LGU. The high number of cases in NCR that are not attributed to an LGU (i.e. unknown city) is not within statistical error.

The surge in COVID-19 cases in the country point to a very significant community transmission in the country, especially in the NCR and Cebu City. Because of this, the UP-OCTA research team cautions against prematurely downgrading the quarantine status in high-risk areas, as well as increase testing, boost aggressive contact tracing, improve treatment and establish more quarantine and other isolation facilities.

Without continued vigilance on the part of the government, private sector, civil society, and citizens, this significant community transmission in the country may lead to the pandemic getting out of control. If both national and local governments continue to fail to provide a prompt and adequate response, all our societal and financial sacrifices will be wasted, and we will likely experience another wave. This may lead to yet another round of more stringent restrictions, which could be harder for the government to implement and will likely undermine our economic recovery.


In this Forecast Report No. 7, UP experts cite data analyses to show that the past enhanced community quarantine worked to reduce transmission and deaths due to COVID-19. However, in certain areas of the country, the risk level of the pandemic is still high. Read about the recommendations of UP scientists regarding the continuation of quarantine measures in some areas and the loosening of restrictions in others.