Figure 1. Estimated (blue) and 7-day moving average (red) of the basic reproduction number for NCR.The reproduction number is proportional to the rate of transmission. The assumed recovery time is 14 days. If R falls below 1, then the pandemic will die out and the curve will flatten. However, data and evidence must first corroborate the theoretical flattening of the curve before ECQ is lifted. This means continued monitoring and implementation of pandemic protocols including testing and tracking.

Figure 1. Estimated (blue) and 7-day moving average (red) of the basic reproduction number for NCR.The reproduction number is proportional to the rate of transmission. The assumed recovery time is 14 days. If R falls below 1, then the pandemic will die out and the curve will flatten. However, data and evidence must first corroborate the theoretical flattening of the curve before ECQ is lifted. This means continued monitoring and implementation of pandemic protocols including testing and tracking.