From left to right: (1) Fit of model to recorded cumulative confirmed data, from 15 March to 29 March 2020. New data points (from 30 March to 4 April 2020) are embedded to show model precision. (2-6) In other panels, projected population size of each subpopulation, in logarithmic scale, are derived by solving the model equations numerically to show different testing scenarios. SOURCE: Mata et al. (2020a)

From left to right: (1) Fit of model to recorded cumulative confirmed data, from 15 March to 29 March 2020. New data points (from 30 March to 4 April 2020) are embedded to show model precision. (2-6) In other panels, projected population size of each subpopulation, in logarithmic scale, are derived by solving the model equations numerically to show different testing scenarios. SOURCE: Mata et al. (2020a)